The sales of heavy trucks continue to fall, the seven-step method for the distributors of Sinotruk, Jiefang, and Dongfeng

The heavy-duty truck market in July 2021 can be said to be a rare downturn in the same period in recent years. According to public data, the sales of heavy trucks in July 2021 was 69,000, a sharp drop of 50% (-50·4%) year-on-year. Both sales volume and year-on-year hit a record low in the same period in recent years, which can be described as freezing.

From the perspective of the supply side, the sales of TOP10 heavy truck companies in July 2021 all fell year-on-year, which can be described as a "slow sound". Among them, 7 companies have fallen by more than 50% year-on-year, and sales are nearly "halved". This is very rare in recent years. Extremely downturn" (Table 1).

Table 1: According to public data, the sales volume of TOP10 heavy-duty truck companies in July 2021 and the year-on-year:

As can be seen from the above table, in July 2021, the sales of the top 10 auto companies in the heavy-duty truck industry have all declined year-on-year, which can be described as a "sweet sound". Even the liberation, which has always been the leader of the heavy truck market, was not spared, with a drop of 58% year-on-year, and the July championship was not held (taken away by Sinotruk). To make matters worse, 7 of the 10 auto companies that experienced a decline have experienced a year-on-year decline of more than 50% (Jiefang, Dongfeng, Shaanxi Automobile, Foton, Hongyan, Jianghuai, Hanma Technology), you can say " "Cliff" fell, and sales were nearly cut in half. It can be said that the tragic situation of mainstream heavy-duty truck companies in July 2021 is almost non-existent in recent years, indicating that the heavy-duty truck market in July this year has dropped to a freezing point.

Of course, there are many reasons for the heavy truck market to be so sluggish in July 2021. First, July is the first month of the full switchover of the National VI. The previously-stocked National V models have already been invoiced in advance, so July is impossible. There are data on China V model invoicing, and China V is still the main sales model in the current heavy truck market. Although China VI is officially launched on the market, end customers are skeptical about product reliability due to the high cost of China VI. Still reluctant to buy the national six heavy truck; second, July is the traditional off-season, the logistics and transportation market is already in a downturn, and many places have sudden epidemics (such as Nanjing, Jiangsu, etc.) and flooding disasters (such as Henan). This has severely affected the logistics and transportation markets in these places. These places (such as Jiangsu and Henan) have always been the provinces in the sales of heavy trucks in the country; third, the price of gas was still rising in July, which hindered the sales of the natural gas heavy truck market in July; Investment in the infrastructure and real estate industries slowed down in July, especially the investment of mainstream real estate companies both declined year-on-year, resulting in a decrease in sales of dump trucks and mixers in the heavy-duty truck market; fifth, heavy-duty truck manufacturers, in order to promote National V, most of the national V models in July The price declines, due to the psychological effect of "buying up and not buying down", many customers think that there may be room for prices to drop, wait and see. Sixth, the freight market prices have dropped again and again, and the contradiction between more cars and fewer goods has further intensified, causing many card friends to support them and resell their vehicles as second-hand cars at low prices, which further affected the sales of new cars in the heavy-duty truck market in July.

The form of the heavy truck market in the next few months in the second half of the year is still not optimistic

According to surveys, there are currently more than 200,000 National V trucks in the hands of dealers across the country. Some larger dealers have more than 1,000 National V trucks in inventory. Smaller dealers have National 5 heavy trucks. There are also hundreds of vehicles in stock. However, the processing time for national five heavy-duty cards is limited. Although most parts of the country have postponed the national five licensing time, most areas have only delayed 3-6 months, and more than one month has passed. In other words, After all the calculations, from now on, the sales time of the national five-layer card is only more than one month to more than four months. With such a large number of vehicles in stock, in the current environment where the heavy-duty truck market is becoming saturated, it is certainly not small for dealers to digest and process them in a relatively short period of time. Relying on price reduction alone may not be very effective. Moreover, if the price drops too much, dealers cannot afford it. After all, there is a bottom line for the business of losing money. Besides, end customers always hope that the price will be higher (parameter丨picture) The lower the better; In addition, due to the high price and high follow-up cost of the National Sixth Heavy Duty Card, many customers are still in the wait-and-see stage for the time being. Not many of them actually buy the National Sixth Heavy Duty card. In addition, many customers basically bought the National Sixth Heavy Duty in the first half of the year. , And now the real demand is also drastically reduced. These factors determine that the heavy-duty truck market in the second half of 2021 will not be too optimistic.

Facing the future heavy truck market, how should dealers respond?

Facing the unoptimistic situation of the heavy truck market in the next few months, most dealers are very distressed and anxious, but they are very confused and do not know what to do. suggestions below:

First, don't worry, build up confidence and analyze the market rationally.
The more difficult the market is, the more confidence must be built. At this time, confidence is indeed more important than gold. This is really not an empty talk. If there is no confidence, nothing can be done. You should know that the heavy truck market downturn in July 2021 is expected. The market in the later period will not be too good. This is objectively unavoidable. Besides, the market is fair. This is the same for any dealer. The key is Those who can rationally analyze, accurately grasp, and actively put into action will be able to win market opportunities and take the lead out of the downturn.

The second is to focus on the second-hand car market business, and it may be easier to find the target customers of the National No. 5 Heavy Truck.

As mentioned above, there may be more than 200,000 national five-duty trucks in the dealer’s inventory waiting to be digested. In fact, the national fifth-heavy trucks currently in the hands of dealers are basically all vehicles that have been invoiced, but some have not been found. The end customer is temporarily unlicensed. According to the author's research, many customers who want to buy heavy-duty national five vehicles like to go to the second-hand car market for consultation, the purpose is to take advantage of the current market conditions and want to make a big bargain. Therefore, if you have a large number of National V inventory vehicles in your hand, you may wish to focus on the second-hand car market, which may make it easier to find target customers. As long as the target customer is found, the price can be negotiated. Therefore, it is recommended that some dealers can appoint some personnel to focus on the daily used car market and target customers in time. As for the price negotiation after finding the target customer, it can be flexibly controlled according to the specific situation of the customer. For example, the price discount range can be determined according to the quantity and configuration of the other party's purchase. In short, as long as there is not too much difference between the market price and the current national five heavy truck market, it can be sold (if the price difference is large and the customer intends to purchase a large quantity, the dealer can negotiate with the OEM and request the OEM to bear it. Part of the price loss) is better than the old holding it in his hands and unable to sell waiting for the final depreciation.

Third, local heavy-duty truck dealers can unite to set the lowest discount price bottom line for the national fifth heavy truck model.

Each regional market has multiple heavy-duty truck dealers of different brands, and the frequently sold models are almost similar. For example, in a certain regional market, the normal selling price of the first-level heavy-duty truck dealers acting for brand A 6X4 tractors is X , And the normal selling price of another dealer’s agent for the B brand 6X4 tractor is Y. Under the current market environment, dealer A and dealer B can work together to formulate the largest price drop for 6X4 tractors (for example, 10%). ), in this way, the minimum selling price of 6x4 tractors can be protected. The advantage of this is that it can prevent some end customers from excessively reducing the price of 6X4 heavy trucks under the current environment, and protect the market price order and protect the commonality of dealers. Benefits are good. Otherwise, in order to satisfy customers' unlimited price requirements, not only will vicious competition disrupt the normal order of price competition in the regional market, but more importantly, it will damage the common interests of distributors. Moreover, it has very important practical significance for the construction of the heavy truck connotation of brand A and brand B, because if you can buy more national five models, you can uncontrollably and quickly reduce prices, which may mean that the brand is ignored due to the rapid depreciation of brand heavy truck prices. One of the connotative factors of construction is the relative stability of prices.

Fourth, dealers can allocate part of their energy to focus on the new energy heavy truck market.

For dealers with a large inventory of trucks from China National Five, the most important task at present is definitely to sell China V as soon as possible, but it shouldn't just sell China V and leave other markets alone. This may increase market risks instead. Instead, we must always pay attention to the market situation and make a timely response. For example, the Politburo recently made a heavy voice "to support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles." In addition, due to the current and future national "dual-carbon" emission reduction goals, many state-owned large-scale steel plants, power plants, mines, ports and other logistics The transportation market has a lot of demand for new energy heavy trucks. As a local heavy truck dealer, we must pay attention to these target customers in time and try our best to sell new energy heavy trucks. Moreover, the price and profit of new energy heavy trucks must be much higher than ordinary heavy trucks. It is of great benefit to the dealer’s own performance improvement and the resolution of the current market dilemma.

Fifth, focus on online live broadcast marketing in some areas with more severe epidemics.

At present, the epidemic situation in some areas of our country is on the rise, and many places have begun to restrict travel, which will definitely have an impact on the offline sales of heavy trucks. Therefore, as a local heavy-duty truck dealer, you can take the route of “live delivery with goods”, conduct “car booking live meetings” in short videos, and strengthen communication with customers in epidemic areas through WeChat Moments. This will definitely expand sales in the epidemic areas and gain more target customers.

The sixth is to take into account the national VI product promotion and marketing, and pave the way for the later development of the national VI market.

Seventh, some powerful heavy-duty truck dealers can fully consider adjusting their profit structure and accelerating their transformation to the aftermarket.

According to public data, the current market scale of my country's auto service chain is about RMB 10 trillion, and the new car sales market is about RMB 1 trillion, which is the auto after-sales market (including after-sales service, car leasing, affiliates, insurance, and mortgages). , Second-hand car sales, etc.) scale is much larger than the scale of the automobile sales market, and the same is true for the heavy-duty truck market. Therefore, for some powerful dealers in the current or future heavy truck market downturn, they can completely consider transforming to the aftermarket to expand their business, so that market risks can be resolved and their own room for survival and development can be expanded.

In short, in the face of the declining heavy truck market in the next few months, as long as dealers establish confidence and adjust their strategies in time, it is possible to get out of the difficult period as soon as possible.